Political rants.

Friday, August 12, 2005

The United States "economic recovery"

Our fearless leaders are boasting about an economic recovery, once again. The stock market is up, so that is a plus. There have been some decent signs in the job market, although real wage growth remains suspect. However, we should not get carried away. The picture is not as rosey as it seems, and it is starting to come to light now.

The steady four year or so rise on oil prices is continuing. Not that you would know it from those companies' earnings. Surely, there will be some reaction to drop prices slightly, for a very short period of time. Consumer spending remains strong, although personal savings is at an all-time low. Fittingly, the trade deficit is up, propelled by China and oil.

Oh, and to add insult to injury, major layoffs from companies like HP will soon hit and ripple through the economy. So, this so-called recovery is likely to be short lived. I can only hope leadership will wake up, examine ways to reduce healthcare costs, boost education, and create a real energy plan.

Let us put it this way, the United States and its people cannot continue to spend money that is not there. Otherwise, the fall will be hard and fast. Band aids are not the answer.